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CR question

Gortland has long been narrowly self-sufficient in both grain and meat. However, as per capita income in Gortland has risen toward the world average, per capita consumption of meat has also risen toward the world average, and it takes several pounds of grain to produce one pound of meat. Therefore, since per capita income continues to rise, whereas domestic grain production will not increase, Gortland will soon have to import either grain or meat or both.
Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?

A
The total acreage devoted to grain production in Gortland will soon decrease.
B
Importing either grain or meat will not result in a significantly higher percentage of Gortlanders’ incomes being spent on food than is currently the case.
C
The per capita consumption of meat in Gortland is increasing at roughly the same rate across all income levels.
D
The per capita income of meat producers in Gortland is rising faster than the per capita income of grain producers.
E
People in Gortland who increase their consumption of meat will not radically decrease their consumption of grain.

泽宇老师您好
我的疑问并不是单单只针对这一道题,只是选取这道题作为一个例子。在CR的视频里您有讲到要找到一道题的fact(q) 和 cause §, 我总是不知道哪里是fact哪里是cause,觉得每一句话都是fact。因为不能马上找到fact和cause,做题非常的慢,也非常的不确定。不知道有什么方法可以让我快点和准确的找到p和q

这道题我认为的q是 as per capita income in Gortland has risen toward the world average, per capita consumption of meat has also risen toward the world average, and it takes several pounds of grain to produce one pound of meat.

p是er capita income continues to rise, whereas domestic grain production will not increase

conclusion是 Gortland will soon have to import either grain or meat or both.

请问老师这是正确的p和q吗 conclusion和q有什么区别,因为这道题开始我认为Gortland will soon have to import either grain or meat or both.是fact。

谢谢老师

我特别强调fact其实是针对于conclusion而言的,你是在解释一个fact为何出现,这就是effect -> cause reasoning,例如abduction, method of difference等

若你的结论是一个还未发生的现象,例如这一题的“Gortland will soon have to import either grain or meat or both.”那么这就是一个从cause -> effect的推理

你真正需要区分不是哪一个是fact,而是这个推理是effect-> cause还是cause -> effect

因此这一题只有E相关,而且取非后符合A, not B (有因无果)的weaken